The American Consumer and The Open AI Saga

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.

1. Open Ai Saga completes

2. The supply chain of the new AI industry

3. How to approach your career path and ladder climbing

4. New short term rental policy changes from CRA

5. Recommendations and Links

Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.

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Market Update📈📉

Welcome back for the Thanksgiving Reformed Pod.

After a CRAZY week of tech news, it seems absolutely everything fell apart and was rebuilt in 6 days.

What an incredible sequence of events.

Over that week, the market continued its November rally as the nasdaq and S&P touched on new all time highs.

This has been quite the reprieve for investors and advisors after a terrible finish to October.

Some Data from Datatrek:

Mutual fund/ETF investors have found their courage again. Last week we noted that this investor cohort had finally started to add to their equity and fixed income holdings after 3 months of net redemptions. We predicted this was a turning point in their market views, and this week confirms that point of view. The data here is courtesy of the Investment Company Institute (link below):

• For the week ending November 15th, inflows totaled $13.1 billion as compared to $14.4 billion in new investments the week before. The 4 weeks prior to this 2-week period saw outflows of $55.0 billion, so the recent turn in fund investors’ animal spirits is certainly underway.

• Equity mutual funds had net inflows of $10.7 billion last week and $7.2 bn the week before. This compares to the prior 4-week outflows of $19.7 billion so, again, we’re seeing an improvement in investor psychology. Worth noting: fund investors are only adding to US equity positions. Non-US funds continue to see outflows.

• Fixed income funds had inflows last week of $4.7 billion, adding to the prior week’s $7.8 billion of fresh money. The last 2 weeks has now replaced the $10.4 billion redeemed over the prior 4 weeks.

• Fund investors are even adding to their commodity fund positions, with inflows last week of $0.4 billion and $0.6 bn the week before. As with bond funds, this puts back the $0.5 billion they redeemed in the prior 4 weeks.

Takeaway: As we noted a few weeks ago, investor confidence was running at unsustainably low levels in October and any sort of asset price stabilization could prove to be the catalyst for better sentiment. Stocks and bonds made their lows in the back half of last month. The turn in money flows started 1-2 weeks later. As long as stock and bond prices continue to drift higher through year-end, our base case assumption, fund inflows should continue.

Twitter links from the pod:

• Canadian Tax Guy talks about the new CRA changes

• Chamath on future of AI

• Gavin Baker talks about the OpenAI Saga

• Car Dealership Guy on car market sentiment

• Ram Talks OpenAI strategy

• Bucco on NYT and content strategy

Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙

• Multibagger Presentation from the MicroCap Club:

• Things that never change - The Compound and Friends:

• Invest like the best with another incredible episode:

Best Links of The Week🔮

• New Commerce view from Shopify - Source: Shopify website

• "Alibaba founder Jack Ma held off on plans to trim his stake in the Chinese e-commerce giant after the share price fell. Ma has not sold a single share, Alibaba’s Chief People Officer Jane Jiang told employees in an internal memo... Alibaba’s stock is currently trading below the company’s actual value, Jiang said, citing this as a reason Ma has not cut his stake. Alibaba’s regulatory filings last week revealed Ma is looking to sell 10 million shares at a value of around $870 million." Source: CNBC

• "The Louvre Museum in Paris has added a “national treasure” to its collection four years after it was discovered during a house clearance. “Christ Mocked” by the Florentine painter Cimabue was found in an elderly woman’s house in the town of Compiegne in 2019. She had kept the rare artwork – which she thought was a Greek religious icon – in her kitchen... The painting, which dates from 1280, went on to fetch almost 24.2 million euros ($26.8 million) at auction in October 2019, more than four times the pre-sale estimate. But the French government then stepped in to block its export, assigning the painting “national treasure” status. The move kept the tiny, ultra-rare painting in the country for 30 months, during which time the government raised the funds to buy it for the nation." Source: CNN

• Must Read of the Day: A slew of retailers have issued tepid, cautious or downright disappointing fourth-quarter outlooks over the past few weeks, casting a pall over the crucial holiday season right as they gear up for the biggest shopping day of the year. The companies, which include everyone from luxury goods giant Tapestry to big boxer BJ’s Wholesale Club, cited a host of dynamics that led them to reduce their outlooks or issue forecasts that came in below expectations. Some, such as Best Buy and Nordstrom, cited the uncertain state of the consumer following months of persistent inflation, while others, such as Hanesbrands, said demand is simply drying up for its basic T-shirts, socks and underwear as wholesalers look to keep inventories in check." Source: CNBC

  "Ousted OpenAI chief Sam Altman will return to run the company he co-founded, following days of speculation and turmoil at the leading generative artificial intelligence start-up. In a dramatic reversal, Altman, who was fired by OpenAI’s board of directors last week, will be reinstated under the supervision of a new board, the company said late on Tuesday in California. Greg Brockman, the co-founder and president who quit the company on Friday after Altman was fired, will return alongside him." Source: FT

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