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Reviewing 2023 predictions
Whats in store for 2024
2024 predictions
Recommendations and Links
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Market Update📈📉
Welcome back and Happy New year everyone.
The market has gotten off to a very slow start. Erasing all the gains in the final five trading days of last year.
On LinkedIn I posted a little blurb on the January Trifecta that i think is important to talk about as we trade through January.
Santa failed to show up for his Rally.
In investing, there are many adages or proverbs that people track.
One that has become popular is the New Years Trifecta.
The first leg is the Santa Clause Rally. Which combines the final 5 trading days of last year and the first 2 trading days of the new year.
The second is “the first 5 days” of January.
The third is “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”.
The first adage or indicator is usually measuring the S&P500, but it’s also fair game to expand it more broadly as I think it helps to see the whole market. (See attached chart from All Star Charts)
So what does it all mean exactly?
Last year, we had one of the best January’s in history. Which lead to one of the best performing years for a 60:40 portfolio in a long time.
We’ve gotten off to a poor start here in North America. But the rest of the world, specifically Emerging Markets, Financials and Healthcare have bucked that trend.
There are many strategists on the street bullish these three areas of the market.
They are showing relative strength.
I think that’s important to pay attention to.
It’s a new year, with new trends.
2024 Predictions:
Cancel culture gets canceled
Ozempic (GLP-1) is bigger than AI
S&P 500 sees a +15% gain
Jerome Powell leaves the fed in 2024 after soft landing confirmed and before Trump
TikTok finally gets banned in the US and Canada (After election)
Hypest IPO of 2024 is going to be Kim K’s Spanx and Stripe
Longevity products go mainstream
Crypto begins a new bull market
Software moats erode with AI
Valuation dispersion widens
A new generational social media product is born
India has a blockbuster startup IPO
US IPO market reopens; M&A stalls with regulation
Small cap tech IPOs will make a comeback
AI deflates healthcare
Digital detoxes go mainstream
The value of culture will skyrocket in the AI age
Fed will hike more than it will cut in 2024
Bitcoin spot ETF will not happen in 2024
Gold will trade below $1700
No banks will fail
China Equities will outperform all G7 equities
YoY US CPI measure for all of 2024 will exceed 2023 year end level
Mag 7 will again outperform SPX 493
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations
The best interview of Scott I have ever watched. And I’ve seen darn near all of them.
Zeihan on Canada’s position economically
Best Links of The Week🔮
The Case Against Travel by Agnes Callard - An argument we might all be more open to after experiencing an airport around the holidays … Especially in an age of online booking and Instagram, travel shouldn’t be considered an achievement or a hobby.
An Extraordinary Introduction to the Birth of Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict (with Haviv Rettig Gur) by EconTalk Podcast - A much broader perspective on the foundation of Israel that goes well beyond 1948 and puts Zionism in a wider historical context in Europe.
Bonus (Listen): Sam Lessin of SlowVC: The End of Factory-Farmed Unicorns on World of DaaS pod Everyone is afraid to make predictions, except Sam Lessin. Sam gives an in depth breakdown of the last five years of VC, and where it’s heading in the next five.
Why The Age of American Progress Ended by Derek Thompson “Invention alone can’t change the world; what matters is what happens next.” The US has more Nobel prizes for science than most of Europe combined, but if there were a Nobel prize for deployment and adoption of new technologies, we certainly wouldn’t be the leading recipients.
The Secret Life of the 500+ Cables That Run the Internet by Stephen Shankland Some of the facts about the several hundred cables that connect the global internet are unbelievable: They’re only about the width of a garden hose, and they carry 99% of intercontinental internet traffic.
What do you actually want? by Raffi Grinberg
For the season of goal setting, a practical, replicable exercise to understand more about what you actually want and why, with grounding in modern psychology.
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Predictions For 2024