Is the Bank of Canada Done Raising Interest Rates?

Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.

1. Joel breaks down the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates

2. Market Update

3. Thoughts on the James Dolans Las Vegas Sphere

4. Liv Golf and the PGA tour merger proposals

5. Recommendations and must listens

Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.

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📈📊Market Update💵📉

Joel’s thoughts on Canadian Mortgages and Interest Rates: (not financial advice!)

Bank Of Canada is at 5.00%. Prime is at 7.20% What Happens Next?

Remember their mandate:

• Price stability

• Full employment

When inflation grows beyond target 2-3%, our Central Banks respond by hiking interest rates. If employment starts to fall, our Central Banks usually cut interest rates.

It’s fairly clear to me now that we’ve found a modicum of price stability in our economy. Housing prices are falling, energy prices are relatively low and food prices have, for the moment, stopped going up.

The last shoe to drop is employment. And for better or worse, the job market is VERY tight.

Prediction: (not financial advice and for entertainment purposes only)

In order for us to start seeing a cut in real rates we need to see employment fall or at the very least, crack.

In my mind, this starts in October/November of 2023.

At which point, 9 to 10 months before BoC starts to cut we will see fixed mortgage drop because they tend to lead. So early spring and summer of 2024, we will have rates back to where they were early this year.

• 5 - Yr Fixed from 3.99% to 4.49%

• 3 - Yr Fixed from 4.39% to 4.79%

We’re at peak rate pain right now. The next shoe to drop is employment. And when it does, we will finally start to see an environment where were no longer talking about rate hikes, but rate cuts.

Trevor Tombe has a great piece on the recent rate hike here.

Twitter links from the pod:

• Income Driven Cycle - Bob Elliott

• Liv Golf Proposals - NUCLR Golf

• Akaash Gupta on the Sphere

🎙Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙

• Microcap Investing with the king - Ian Cassel

• Tom Holland on the Smartless Pod:

• Harvard Biologist David Sinclair on what it will take to live to 120

🔮Best Links of The Week🔮

• The Evolution of a Value Investor - Source: TSOH

• The Vanishing: The erasure of Jews from American life by Jacob Savage

  According to YouGov data, just 4% of elite academics under 30 are Jewish, compared to over 20% of boomers.

• My Friend, Stalin’s Daughter by Nicholas Thompson

  Svetlana Alliluyeva (Stalin’s daughter) was a sensation when she defected to the U.S. in the late 60s, but her later years in the U.S. were more fraught. An unbelievable arc of 20th century life from the Kremlin to Spring Green, Wisconsin.

• Images From Words - Michael Parekh

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